Surging Data Traffic will strain 3G Networks in 2011

1. Surging mobile data traffic will continue to test 3G network capacity

As we predicted at the end of last year, 2010 was the year in which the surge in mobile data traffic, driven by the consumer smartphone boom, began to place the 3G networks under severe strain. A number of network operators have responded by introducing tiered data pricing – a trend which will undoubtedly increase – but as smartphone adoption continues apace, network capacity will be sorely tested in 2011. Tiered pricing (and the use of WiFi as capacity relief) may serve to alleviate the problem to a certain extent, but until we see mass deployments of LTE networks (and, equally important, devices that are LTE-capable), then operators face a nervous period while attempting to manage the transition.

2. Augmented reality to enhance mobile games and retail

Augmented Reality, or AR, has largely been used in local search and reference applications thus far, but is now attracting the attention of the retail industry. Given its potential to geotag products or locations with brand/campaign-specific information, as we near the end of 2010 a raft of major retailers and brands are releasing apps with an AR element. Brands on the bandwagon include eBay, H&M and Carlsberg. With Apple opening its accelerometer and gyroscope APIs to mobile Safari developers, there is also an opportunity for AR-enabled web-based apps. Also expect to see an increasing number of AR-based games – THQ Wireless’ forthcoming Star Wars Arcade: Falcon Gunner likely to be the first of many such titles.

3. Cloud-based operating systems will launch

So far mobile operating systems have followed their PC-based cousins, the structure for which was formulated when the web was in its infancy. Consequently, with the web having taken-off, for some time now industry figures have been talking about the potential for applications to run from a “cloud”. Google announced the start of new project, the Chrome cloud OS in 2009; and the latest is that it will be launched in early 2011. With network reach and reliability reaching a point where cloud-based solutions can be considered viable, and remote servers already being used to allow the mobile internet and email, we believe 2011 will see the launch of the first cloud OS for mobile.

4. Mobile banking will become a “must-have” when opening a new account

Banks in developed countries will harness the power of the app and the smartphone to provide their customers with a much improved and personalized service experience. The sign-up process will be a simple box to tick in account opening processes from banks that are keen to make life easier for customers by proving the ability to manage their money on the move in what might otherwise be dead time.

5. Mobile devices begin to replace credit cards

In some countries at least, using your phone as a credit card for lower value purchases will in 2011 become a reality. Google recently announced that NFC (Near Field Communication) technology will be supported in the next release of Android – 2.3 or “Gingerbread”; a natural step, given it already offers several mobile commerce apps and services including shopping, coupons and products search. Also, Nokia’s C7 handset has an NFC chip included, which will be activated in 2011, and rumors of Apple’s next iPhone including NFC refuse to die down. A word of caution: it won’t all happen at once. Stores need to deploy contactless readers, and more problematically, it is dependent on user preference. However, as with Bluetooth and cameras, we will see NFC in new devices whether we want it or not.

6. Mobile handsets become even more sensitive

Locational and sensory features on smartphones - such as accelerometers, gyroscopes and GPS - have been key drivers in application development. Handset manufacturers will be keen to add more “killer” features to their devices to give them that edge. With the aforementioned features becoming standard, vendors are already looking to incorporate others, such as, proximity, temperature, biometrics, 3D displays, and projectors, into their handsets.

7. Mobile lottery tickets sales to soar

With lottery sales from traditional distribution channels in decline in many developed markets – notably the US – national/state lottery organizers are anxious to explore new means of distribution. Juniper Research believes 2011 is the year when mobile lotteries will hit the mainstream. As consumers across all age ranges become more comfortable with browsing for content and making purchases via the mobile handset, this major hurdle to mobile lotteries will begin to disappear. We expect a raft of mobile lottery launches across the US and Europe, while VODone’s existing service in China (which already has more than 10 million registered users) is likely to experience further significant growth.

8. Mobile-specific threats lead to demand for mobile-specific security

With the growing number of open WiFi networks, and antivirus vendor Kaspersky reporting the first virus designed to disrupt Google’s Android operating system, the risks for smartphone users will increase in 2011. Antivirus and firewalls have been a “must-have” for PC users for some time, and with mobile handset featuring a wider array of connectivity options – and less secure ones – the lure for vigilantes and criminals is even greater. In light of this, anti-virus software vendors such as Kaspersky and McAfee are likely to make a concerted effort to sell into the mobile space in 2011.

9. Buyouts take social purchasing to a new level

Google is heavily rumored to be keen on purchasing Groupon, a company which sends users offers on products and services. But rather than providing a coupon, it manages the transaction, taking a share of the proceeds. We expect a Google acquisition to have similar impact on this model as we saw in mobile advertising, when it purchased AdMob.

10. More vendors develop a GreenHeart

Sony Ericsson’s GreenHeart mantra lead to the Sony Ericsson Elm, a handset made from recycled plastics and free of hazardous chemicals, and comes with a low power consumption charger, reduced packaging, some eco-aware apps and an e-manual on the phone instead of a printed guide. Given this move, we expect other vendors to go down a similar route, in order to appeal to the increasingly-environmentally conscious consumer. (Source: Juniper Research)

Lesson from Wikileaks: Cyberspace is Lawless

The most telling release from the State Department this week was not a leaked cable but its “World Press Freedom Day” announcement.

Just as the rest of the US government was hounding companies not to do business with WikiLeaks, the department hailed the ability of new media to empower citizens in “environments sometimes hostile” to freedom of expression.

“At the same time, we are concerned about the determination of some governments to censor and silence individuals, and to restrict the free flow of information,” it went on to say.

You gotta love that.

But as well as the unembarrassed hypocrisy, it reminds us that internet freedom is severely vulnerable to attacks by governments, and not just the usual culprits such as China and Iran.

A month ago the flap about China “hijacking” web traffic pointed to the fragility of the BGP routing infrastructure which underpins IP traffic management.

The WikiLeaks saga shows how the DNS system is a chokepoint and thus also vulnerable.

The DDoS attacks on WikiLeaks forced its registrar, EveryDNS, to cancel its domain registration in order to protect its other 500,000 customers.

Then the retaliatory attacks this week by hacktivists on Visa and Mastercard further demonstrated the power of DDoS to take websites off the air.

WikiLeaks is online thanks to hundreds of mirror sites, but that’s not an option for other websites that come under attack.

The lesson from WikiLeaks is that cyberspace is a lawless zone where the weak are prey to the strong.

What we need is a cyberspace police force to protect the rights of legitimate sites, and an effective judicial forum to settle disputes.

Obviously that would require the cooperation of the world’s powers, and for the US to cede its dominance. Obviously it ain’t going to happen soon. Or ever.

But the US assault on WikiLeaks has exposed giant cracks in web governance. They will only get bigger.

Enterprise Mobility: Apple, Google, Sprint Among Winners in Yankee`s 2011 4G Predictions

• Prediction: '4G Will Be a Drop in the Ocean'

  By the end of 2011, only 25 percent of North American consumers will understand what 4G means, says Yankee Group. Incumbent operators, such as Vodafone and AT&T, will win out, as they'll "be able to align 4G investments with pragmatic adoption forecasts." Pictured: A new Vodafone ad campaign starring F1 driver Jenson Button, indie rock darling Florence Welch and supermodel Lilly Cole.

• Prediction: 'A Denial-of-Service Attack Will Take Down a 4G Network'

  Speeding to deployment, some security corners may be cut that will cost operators in the long-term. AT&T's struggle, says Yankee, is "particularly poignant," as it works to rollout 4G while supporting its iPhone customers on 3G.

• Prediction: 'Chinese Vendors Will Beat 3G Incumbents'

  Tier 1 players shouldn't dismiss Chinese vendors as offering inferior solutions, says Yankee. The competition they pose over the next five years will be considerable. Pictured is China-based Huawei's testing center.

• Prediction: '4G Users Will Spend Twice as Much Time on the Mobile Web as Their Non-4G Counterparts'

  By the end of 2011, 4G users are expected to spend more than 36 minutes a day browsing the mobile Web. The new Microsoft ad campaign for its Windows Phone 7 phones, features the tag line: "It's time for a phone to save us from our phones." Pictured: the WP7-running Dell Venue Pro.

• Prediction: 'Mobile Video Will Not Drive Consumers to 4G'

  Mobile video is constrained not just by bandwidth but how much attention users can spend on video. Instead, mobile apps and Web browsing will for now lead 4G use.

• Prediction: 'The Web Will Not Save Operators in the Mobile Apps Market'

  Unfortunately for operators, says Yankee, "Apple and Google own the most popular mobile Web browsers and are well-positioned to optimize these for app discovery and search." Pictured is Apple's new store in Shanghai, China. (Image courtesy of Apple.)

• Prediction: 'MVNO Hype Will Build, but Most of It Will Lead to Nothing'

  In theory, the 4G MVNO business should be a successful one, says Yankee, "but it won't be." To succeed, the MVNO can't compete with its host in any meaningful way. The Kyocera Loft, pictured, is offered by the MVNO Virgin Mobile.

• Prediction: 'Pricing Will End in Tiers'

  Goodbye, flat rates. In 2011, 4G mobile data plans are expected to be tiered. Where the business model supports it, however—as with the Amazon Kindle—connectivity will come as a built-in standard.

• Prediction: 'Carrier VOIP Will Still Be AWOL, Despite 4G'

  Most operators are still planning their 4G networks and won't support VOIP on 4G in the short-term. Only T-Mobile and other operators using HSPA+ offer voice support on their "4G" networks. The new T-Mobile myTouch 4G is pictured.

• Prediction: 'Google Will Take the Wheel in Mobile Data'

  More bandwidth means more data traffic, says Yankee, and "Google is the most successful company at monetizing that traffic." Pictured is Google's Dublin office.

Google upgraded the Google Voice application it wrote for the iPhone to enable phone-management capabilities on Apple's iPad and iPod touch.

Google Dec. 14 said it augmented its Google Voice phone-management application for the iPhone to run on Apple's iPad and iPod touch.

U.S. users may download the new version of Google Voice to send and receive free text messages and enjoy voice mail transcription, listen to live messages left on voice mail and other communications perks.

Users cannot make calls with the Google Voice application from the iPad and iPod touch, which lack calling capabilities. However, users may still manage their Google Voice inbox and enjoy the Click2Call feature.

This feature will trigger Google Voice calls from the iPad and iPod touch devices to mobile, home and work phones users have set up to work with Google Voice. Google Voice will call the line that users select and connect the call.

Google finally saw its native application for Apple's iPhone approved for Apple's App Store in November, putting an end to a 16-month rift between two companies competing in the mobile phone market.

Apple had blocked Google's original Google Voice application submission from its App Store because it competed with its iPhone features.

To mitigate the lack of Google Voice support on the iPhone, Google launched a Web version of Google Voice for iPhone based on HTML5 in January. However, the Web application lacked push notifications to alert users to new voice mail or text messages.

The new native version of Google Voice for the iPhone, which Apple blessed after easing its developer terms of service, offers push notifications. These alerts have just been improved.

As of today, when iPhone, iPad and iPod touch users turn push notifications on in the Google Voice application, Google will automatically disable text forwarding so users don't see duplicate notifications.

Users may also send all callers straight to voice mail by turning on the “do not disturb” function in the settings tab.

Users can also place calls from the address book more conveniently by adding a dedicated contacts button to the dialer tab.

The Google Voice application is available to download from Apple's App Store now for the iPhone, iPad, or iPod Touch running iOS 3.1 or later. The application requires users to have a valid Google Voice account, available only in the United States.

The introduction of Google Voice for the iPad and iPod touch comes one day after Google launched a native Google Latitude friend-finding application for the iPhone.

Will PT TELKOM buy CamGSM Cambodia's largest mobile Operator?

PT TELKOM Indonesia will be holding its Special Shareholders' Meeting today, Friday, December 17, 2010. The company will appoint new executives for the next 5-year period, its new Board of Directors and Board of Commissioners. Among its Meeting Agenda, includes the decision to sell its subsidiary division, Telkom Flexi CDMA Semi-fixed Wireless Division, and the acquisition of Cambodia's largest GSM Operator, the CamGSM for a value about US$500 million. The following is the latest news from telecomasia.net :

Jakarta. Telekomunikasi Indonesia, Indonesia’s biggest telecommunications company, said on Wednesday that it was in talks to acquire a majority stake in Cambodia’s largest mobile operator CamGSM in a deal that could be worth over $500 million.

The planned acquisition, which values CamGSM at about $1 billion according to a source with knowledge of the deal, would be Telkom’s first major acquisition overseas after a failed bid to acquire Iran Telecommunication Company last year.

“I hope that the process of acquisition will be completed by the first quarter next year,” said Tanri Abeng, Telkom’s chief commissioner.

“We’ve made it through the bidding process and we’re now in talks to get financial details done, but we are surely going to take a majority stake,” Abeng said, declining to give any financial details.

CamGSM, established in 1996 between Millicom Group and Cambodia’s Royal Group, is the largest mobile operator in Cambodia through its Mobitel and Cellcard brands.

Mobitel’s CEO David Spriggs declined to comment on the deal.

Millicom sold its 58.4 percent stake in the firm last year to Royal Group for $346 million in cash.

Telkom’s plan to acquire a majority stake in CamGSM is part of the company’s strategy this year to find acquisition opportunities in the region as the once-buoyant Indonesian market is starting to mature

ID-WIBB launched Indonesian Broadband Roaming Facilities

November 23, 2010 – To encourage WiMAX™ growth in Indonesia, ID-WiBB, an industry-led, not-for-profit organization formed to promote national vision through the compatibility and interoperability of broadband wireless products in Indonesia, announced today the launch of an Indonesian broadband roaming facility to serve the many wireless broadband service providers throughout the region.

This will enable roaming between WiMAX and Wi-Fi and possibly future LTE operators, creating a unified 4G wireless network across the nation.

“Our goal is to encourage further wireless broadband adoption and growth of the broadband ecosystem by establishing an automatic networked ID authorization that will allow anyone – regardless of their service provider – to tap in to the benefits of wireless broadband from anywhere, at anytime,” said Kanaka Hidayat, ID-WiBB. “Today’s announcement takes us one step closer to uniting the Indonesian market under one wireless broadband umbrella.”

To date, three operators awarded WiMAX derived Wireless Broadband licenses in Indonesia have signed up to become roaming partners.

Aptilo Networks, the global leader in integrated solutions for control of billing, user services and access in wireless networks including Wi-Fi, WiMAX and LTE, has been selected by ID-WIBB to enable this multi-access roaming. The award-winning Aptilo Service Management Platform™, which will serve as a AAA proxy for the authentication, authorization and accounting of roaming users between the different WiMAX and Wi-Fi service providers. The Aptilo solution will keep track of roaming subscribers’ consumption of resources (time and/or data) in any visiting network and provide the required statistics to allow ID-WiBB to serve as a neutral accounting party. The addition of LTE support to the Aptilo platform in 2011 will expand opportunities for ID-WiBB for future revenue streams.

“Aptilo is dedicated to full compliance with wireless standards, and is unparalleled in our commitment to interoperability testing with vendors in the wireless broadband arena including WiMAX,” said Jan Sjonell, Managing Director Asia/Middle East, Aptilo Networks. “We are proud to have been selected for this important project. We look forward to working hand-in-hand with ID-WiBB in encouraging growth of the wireless broadband ecosystem in Indonesia.”

ITU Ratified LTE-Advanced as IMT-Advanced

4G Americas Applauds 3GPP and ITU

November 23 2010

BELLEVUE, Wash. –

4G Americas, a wireless industry trade association representing the 3GPP family of technologies, today applauds the final ratification of LTE-Advanced as an IMT-Advanced technology by the International Telecommunication Union (ITU).

In its October meeting, ITU’s Radiocommunication Sector (ITU-R) Working Party 5D, which is responsible for defining the IMT-Advanced global 4G technologies, completed the assessment of six candidate submissions and reached a milestone by deciding on LTE-Advanced and WirelessMAN-Advanced for the first release of IMT-Advanced. Final ratification of the full IMT-Advanced technology family took place at the ITU-R Study Group meeting on November 22 and 23 in Geneva, Switzerland.

The future is bright for LTE, with nine official commercial launches already in 2010, and an additional 11 expected before the end of the year. More than 250 companies have publicly expressed interest in deploying LTE networks, including Greenfield, CDMA, WiMAX and GSM operators. LTE is expected to be the leading choice for next-generation OFDMA networks over the next decade for all wireless carriers.

As the future evolution of LTE, LTE-Advanced will be poised as a pre-eminent ITU-sanctioned 4G mobile broadband solution for information, communications and entertainment. By offering a full suite of integrated 3G (IMT-2000) and 4G (IMT-Advanced) ecosystems, the 3GPP technology family supports the evolving and expanding mobile broadband needs of the expansive international base of mobile operators and their customers. IMT-Advanced provides a global platform on which to build the next generations of interactive mobile services that will provide faster data access, enhanced roaming capabilities, unified messaging and broadband multimedia.

“This day is a milestone to remember for mobile broadband connectivity,” said Chris Pearson, President of 4G Americas. “4G Americas is excited about this new era of wireless communications and extremely pleased that 3GPP Release 10 and beyond – LTE-Advanced – mobile broadband technology has been approved by the ITU. The future for mobile broadband technologies has never been brighter to help progress societies in the Americas and throughout the world.”

LTE-Advanced technology will now move into the final stage of the IMT-Advanced process, which provides for the development in early 2012 of an ITU-R Recommendation specifying the in-depth technical standards for these radio technologies.

Pearson added, “Congratulations to ITU, 4G Americas’ member companies and 3GPP for their great work efforts in making this moment a reality.”

4G Americas is a Market Representation Partner of 3GPP.

For more information on LTE-Advanced, download the Rysavy Research white paper, Transition to 4G: 3GPP Broadband Evolution to IMT-Advanced.

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About 4G Americas: Unifying the Americas through Mobile Broadband Technology
4G Americas is an industry trade organization composed of leading telecommunications service providers and manufacturers. The organization's mission is to promote, facilitate and advocate for the deployment and adoption of the 3GPP family of technologies throughout the Americas. 4G Americas contributes to the successful commercial rollout of 3GPP mobile broadband technologies across the Americas and their place as the No. 1 technology family in the region. The organization aims to develop the expansive wireless ecosystem of networks, devices, and applications enabled by GSM and its evolution to LTE. 4G Americas is headquartered in Bellevue, Wash., with an office for Latin America and the Caribbean in Dallas. More information is available at www.4gamericas.org.

4G Americas' Board of Governors members include: Alcatel-Lucent, América Móvil, Andrew Solutions, AT&T, Cable & Wireless, Ericsson, Gemalto, HP, Huawei, Motorola, Nokia Siemens Networks, Openwave, Powerwave, Qualcomm, Research In Motion (RIM), Rogers, Shaw Communications, T-Mobile USA and Telefónica.