Friday, October 23, 2009

Broadband Mapping: A Buried Treasure

In the olden days, explorers paid a lot of money for maps that they hoped would lead to buried treasure. Things apparently haven’t changed too much from the days of Hernando Cortez and Ponce de Leon, as broadband mapping companies hope to find their pot of gold – or at least a respectable return -- from creating maps that the government will use to judge broadband stimulus applications.

“If you want to develop the right broadband technology, you have to do a thorough needs assessment”

The issue is highly contentious, however. While broadband mapping has been ongoing for years, it became a far more interesting industry segment when The American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 became law. ARRA includes $7.2 billion to extend broadband access to areas – mostly rural – that are underserved or unserved today. ARRA also mandates $350 million for creation of broadband maps that can nail down more precisely where the billions of dollars should go.

This makes perfect sense, of course. It’s illogical to try to fix a problem or meet a challenge if the precise nature of what is in play isn’t known. “If you want to develop the right broadband technology, you have to do a thorough needs assessment,” says Craig Settles, a consultant who works in the sector. “To walk into some place and spend a bunch of money to build or buy technology without understanding the needs of the people involved is a crap shoot.”

It’s a vital job, and much of the effectiveness of the broadband stimulus will depend on how well the mapping is done. “If it is not worked out right, it will be a mess. There’s no doubt about that,” says Art Brodsky, the communications director for Public Knowledge, an advocacy group.

The maps will be created on a state-by-state basis and integrated into a single national broadband map. A fight has broken out among companies that want to provide the state-level mapping services. The battle pits the biggest of the mapping firmstelecommunication industry-backed Connected Nation – against many of the other organizations and companies that want a slice of the business.

Tight Timeframes

It is important to consider the context. The ARRA assigns fulfillment of the mapping requirements to the National Telecommunication Information Administration (NTIA, which is part of the Department of Commerce). The NTIA’s Notice of Funds Availability (NOFA) also sets a tight timeframe for such a big job: Data for the map is to be collected by March 1, 2010, and the national broadband map is to be finished by February 17, 2011.

So the states are scrambling, and the company with the biggest profile – quite an advantage in a chaotic environment – is Connected Nation, a 501(c)(3) non-profit that grew out of a project early in the decade called ConnectKentucky. The organization, according to National Policy Director for Finance Phillip Brown, has been designated or is working with designees in 12 states and one territory. That number will grow as the industry states try to meet the deadlines set by the NOFA.

Connected Nation is allowed to apply for broadband mapping under ARRA because it is a public/private partnership that runs its mapping business as a non-profit. The criticism is that major carriers and industry groups – including Verizon, Comcast, AT&T, the CTIA – The Wireless Association, the National Cable Telecommunications Association, the TIA, and the US Telecom Association – are on the board of directors and the organization’s advisory council. Indeed, Settles calls Connected Nation “essentially a PR group for the telecom industry” that was able to tilt the legislation in its favor.

In addition to its board and advisory council membership, Connected Nation is partially funded by telecommunications companies. In an e-mail response to an inquiry, a Connected Nation press contact wrote that the organization’s funding sources are half public and half private. The e-mail says that less than 6 percent of private funding comes from the telecommunications companies. “The perception has been put out there that the bulk of our funding comes from the private sector and broadband providers. That’s not true,” Brown says.

Critics say that the relationships suggest a conflict of interest, since the incumbent telecommunications companies would benefit by the amount and speed of broadband connectivity being overstated. The idea is that the higher the data rates and more extensive the footprint are in a certain area, the less likely it is that NTIA will approve of a project. Thus, relying on maps from a provider closely aligned with companies with a keen interest in the findings raises eyebrows.

Indeed, the critics are not shy about saying that something untoward is going on. Vince Jordan, the president and CEO of broadband engineering, construction and management firm RidgeviewTel, says that Connected Nation isn’t doing a thorough job. “These guys basically are taking whatever the telco and cable guys feed them and regurgitate it, and say that’s where the coverage is,” he says.

Data that is given by carriers to the broadband mapping companies is protected under non-disclosure agreements. Thus, actual cases in which speeds are overstated are impossible to identify. But appearances are vital. Drew Clark, the editor and executive director of BroadbandCensus, a news and commercial data services organization, says he believes that the telecommunications carriers shouldn’t be in the broadband mapping business, even indirectly.

“I personally believe that broadband data needs to be collected independently of the carriers and incumbent interests,” he says. “You need to have an alternative to a group that is focused on the incumbents to get independent measures of broadband data.”

The fear is that the good intentions of the broadband element of the stimulus can be waylaid by the intricate political maneuvers. Brodsky doesn’t pull his punches. He says that the effectiveness of the broadband stimulus hangs in the balance, and that whether applications from Connected Nation are accepted will be the key. “If the NTIA accepts Connected Nation’s applications – with their caveats and hidden data – I fear for the worst,” he says.

Connected Nation: Standing on Its Record

Not surprisingly, Connected Nation thinks the criticisms are unfounded. Brown defends the relationships with the carriers as the best way in which to get them to agree to the NDAs. “For us, it has not been necessary to use a stick,” he says. “Because we have always worked on demand creation, the carrot has worked.”

Brown stands behind Connected Nation’s track record. He says mapping organizations are mandated to grant NDAs to telecommunications companies that ask for them under rules set by the NTIA. Brown adds that information contributed by the telecommunications firms is verified in a number of ways, from information provided by customers on their broadband speeds to engineering tests by Connected Nation engineers.

In the bigger picture, Brown says he sees the smoke but has trouble finding the fire in the criticisms: “If the critics are not directly saying that Connected Nation misrepresented information on its maps, I am trying to figure out exactly what we’re being accused of. What’s the criticism?”

The next few months will be vital to the success of the broadband element of the stimulus package. It is certain that some people in rural and underserved areas will be helped. The effectiveness of the broadband mapping project will go a long way to determining if the $7.2 billion investment is maximized. (source: Carl Wienshenk)

Friday, October 16, 2009

New Strategic WiFi Service: WiFi Direct Connect

A new Wi-Fi certification is nearing completion to allow direct connections between Wi-Fi devices without joining a traditional Wi-Fi network. Known as Wi-Fi Connect, Alliance plans to begin certifying devices by mid-2010.

The Wi-Fi Alliance is nearing completion of a new specification to allow Wi-Fi devices to connect to one another without joining a traditional home, office or hotspot network. The Wi-Fi Alliance expects to begin certification for the new specification in mid-2010 and is currently called Wi-Fi Direct. In its early stages of development it was known as Wi-Fi Peer-to-Peer.

The new specification can be implemented in any Wi-Fi device, including mobile phones, cameras, printers, notebook computers, keyboards and headphones. Certified devices will also be able to create connections with Wi-Fi certified legacy devices already in use. Devices will be able to make a one-to-one connection or a group of several devices can connect simultaneously.
Resource Library:

The new specification targets both consumer electronics and enterprise applications, providing management features for enterprise environments and includes WPA2 security. Wi-Fi Direct devices will support typical Wi-Fi ranges and the same data rates as can be achieved with an infrastructure connection, so devices can connect from across a home or office and conduct bandwidth-hungry tasks.

“Wi-Fi Direct represents a leap forward for our industry. Wi-Fi users worldwide will benefit from a single-technology solution to transfer content and share applications quickly and easily among devices, even when a Wi-Fi access point isn't available,” Wi-Fi Alliance Executive Director Edgar Figueroa said in a statement. "The impact is that Wi-Fi will become even more pervasive and useful for consumers and across the enterprise."

The Wi-Fi Alliance plans to publish its peer-to-peer specification upon completion and will begin certifying devices for the Wi-Fi Direct designation in 2010. Only Wi-Fi Alliance member companies will be able to certify devices to the new specification. (source: Roy Mark - eWeek)

Thursday, October 15, 2009

Mobile Broadband Market Change

Alcatel-Lucent chief Ben Verwaayen speaks the truth when he admits the telecom industry has "missed everything" in the digital boom.

"We missed email. We missed SMS. Some people have made a lot of money with ringtones...[we] think technology; we don't think end-users," he told an industry conference in September.

This is a guy who's worked both sides of the industry fence, previously holding BT's top post and before that was a senior exec at pre-merger Lucent.

Can the industry learn? I hope so, because the good times just don't last the way they used to.

It wasn't long ago we were celebrating the arrival of mobile broadband. Now a lot of people are fretting about the coming mobile data flood.

A US consultancy, Chetan Sharma, expects global mobile data traffic will pass 1 exabyte (EB) - a million terabytes - for the first time this year. In the next year both North America and Western Europe will top the 1 EB mark in mobile data traffic.

To put that into context, Cisco says that mobile data traffic will grow from a petabyte per month to an exabyte month in half the time it took fixed data traffic to do so. Cisco's Visual Network Index (VNI) predicts that mobile data volume will double every year between 2008 and 2013.

And here's an arresting stat: a single high-end phone like the iPhone or BlackBerry generates more data traffic than 30 basic or feature phones. A laptop aircard generates more data traffic than 450 basic-feature cell phones.

(For what it's worth, Cisco thinks most of the growth will come from video. In four years it will account for 64% of total mobile traffic.)

Huawei Technologies says that 3G dongles and smartphones have driven up mobile data usage by 10 to 15 times prior volume.
Mobile data is already a big chunk of revenue for many operators; in the case of NTT DoCoMo, the world's biggest mobile data carrier, 45%.

It's contributing to ARPU, but is it enough to halt its decline?

The problem is, as we all know, many operators have moved to flat-rate plans with large monthly allowances of data. Huawei puts it as only a vendor could: "If operators simply expand capacity to keep up with demand... including everything from streaming video to P2P downloads, they will never be able to achieve profitable operations."

Few operators that have experienced increase in overall ARPU, Chetan Sharma's survey concludes.

Indeed, DoCoMo's current numbers are scary, although they are as much to do with the pounding it's getting from its competitors, and the tough financial conditions, as mobile data alone.

In Q2 revenue was down 7.3% and income down 15%. Subscribers to its Pake-hodai service grew 43% - but that's a flat-rate data product. Voice revenue dived 80 billion yen ($882 million), or 29% compared with Q2 last year, while data sales were up just 25.2 billon yen. Ouch.

At the other end of the scale is Verizon Wireless, which is right in the sweet spot. Verizon is the world's fastest growing mobile data provider and according to Chetan Sharma, will overtake DoCoMo in the next few quarters.

It boosted data revenue 33% and data ARPU by 23%. Net effect on total ARPU? A measly 0.6%. If Verizon isn't minting cash, what hope is there the rest of us?

One part of the solution is what operators measure. Chetan Sharma suggests that instead of ARPU, operators should track performance and profitability by average margin per subscription (AMPS), average connections per user (ACPU), or "customer lifetime value" that maximizes profits across all connections of a user or his or her family.

That will get people looking at the right things.

Technology - femtos or Wi-Fi, for example - is another part of the solution.

But the biggest part will be to take Verwaayen's admonition to heart. Don't miss anything. Whether it's new price structures, app stores, fixed-mobile bundling, or partnerships with apps or handset firms, the mobile industry has to get ahead of the game. Or it really will become the land of bit pipes.
(source: Robert Clark - Telecomasia)

Wednesday, October 14, 2009

Nokia will launch Booklet 3G Netbook

Nokia will launch its Booklet 3G netbook in the US in mid-November through carrier partner AT&T.

The company said the Booklet 3G will be available through electronics chain store Best Buy, for $300 on a two-year AT&T contract with a roughly $60 per month data plan.

The device, which aims to blur the lines between smartphones and netbooks, will be powered by an Intel Atom chip and include Wi-Fi, 3G/HSPA and GPS capabilities.

The Booklet 3G will run on the Windows 7 OS, but will also be able to use the applications available on Nokia's Ovi app store.

“Our alliance with Nokia is advancing on multiple fronts and the Nokia Booklet 3G is an important step,” Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer said.
Source:
telecomasia.net
Dylan Bushell-Embling

Thursday, October 8, 2009

Amazon.com will release new Kindle eBook Reader

Amazon.com announced on Tuesday evening that it would soon begin selling a new version of the Kindle that can wirelessly download books both in the United States as well as in more than 100 other countries.

The move pits Amazon.com, based in Seattle, against a range of other players in the growing global market for digital reading. The rivals include iRex, a division of Royal Philips Electronics, the Dutch consumer electronics company; Sony; and China Mobile, the world’s largest mobile carrier, which said last month it would soon begin selling several kinds of electronic reading devices.

The new Kindle is physically identical to Amazon’s current Kindle, with its slender profile, six-inch black-and-gray screen and angular keyboard. The main difference: it will use the wireless networks of AT&T and its international roaming partners, instead of Amazon’s existing wireless partner for the Kindle, Sprint. Sprint’s network is incompatible with most mobile networks outside of North America.

The new Kindle will sell for $279. It begins shipping on Oct. 19.

“We regularly ship millions of English-language books to non-English speaking countries and people have to wait for the delivery,” said Jeffrey P. Bezos, Amazon’s chief executive. “Now they can get books in 60 seconds. That is a pretty exciting part of what we are announcing.”

In addition, Amazon also announced a price cut for the United States-only Kindle, which will continue to be sold alongside the new global Kindle. The domestic Kindle is now $259, down from $299. Amazon previously dropped the price in July, from $359, to stimulate demand and to match the prices of rivals like Sony, whose least expensive e-reader now costs $199. Amazon also sells the larger-screen Kindle DX for $489.

International users of the new Kindle will have a slightly smaller collection of around 200,000 English-language books to choose from, and their catalogs will be tailored to the country they purchased the device in. Amazon said it would sell books from a range of publishers including Bloomsbury, Hachette, HarperCollins, Lonely Planet and Simon & Schuster.

Among the apparent holdouts: Random House, which is owned by Bertelsmann, the German media conglomerate. Stuart Applebaum, a Random House spokesman, said the company’s “discussions with Amazon about this opportunity are ongoing, productive and private."

One challenge for publishers is navigating complex foreign rights issues: Books are often published by different companies and bear different prices in each country.

Though exact sales numbers are hard to come by, it appears electronic reading devices are having a breakout year. In a report being released on Wednesday by Forrester, the research firm revised its prediction for the industry, saying that three million e-reading devices would be sold in 2009, up from its previous estimate of two million.

Mr. Bezos declined to offer specific information about Kindle sales. But he said Kindle titles were now 48 percent of total book sales in instances where Amazon sold both a digital and physical copy of a book. That was up from 35 percent last May, an increase Mr. Bezos called “astonishing.”

“This has grown much faster than any of us ever anticipated,” Mr. Bezos said. (NYT)

Saturday, October 3, 2009

What will the Wireless Web look like?

The future of the Web is up for grabs—again. It was only a few years ago that the Internet made the leap from dial-up to high-speed broadband connections. Today, another transformation looms as those wired connections give way to the possibility of a wireless Web. At the helm of this change is a fast-evolving wireless ecosystem that combines the greater speeds and higher data volumes of today’s wireless networks (such 3G-HSPA and, soon, LTE1) with the growing numbers of smart phones boasting bigger screens, better touch pads, and more processing power.

In the early 2000s, 3G technology was seen as a failure for the mobile-phone industry. By the eve of the Internet bust, companies had shelled out billions for wireless licenses, and the resulting implosion seemed to shut down any hopes (except in Japan) for the existence of a mobile Web. Today, the use of wireless data is growing rapidly and has passed a tipping point. Surveys show that two-thirds of mobile-phone owners access data on their devices—up from only one-quarter three years ago—with 60 percent using them for basic Internet browsing. Spending on smart phones, meanwhile, has soared from barely 3 percent of new-phone purchases to nearly 20 percent in Canada, the United Kingdom, and the United States.2 Consider Austria: although the country is not usually ranked among digital hot spots such as South Korea or Finland, more new Austrian Web users are connecting via wireless data cards in their PCs and notebook computers than by wired broadband connections. (McKinsey)